On the 13th, the steel market predicted that the b

On the 13th, the steel market forecast: the steel price of billets fell by 20 in the morning, or the steel price fell by 20 in the morning.

I. macro briefing 1. Talk about the European and American economy and the debt ceiling before the Jacob Lu G7 meeting. In an interview with CNBC before the G7 finance ministers' meeting last Friday, Jacob Lew, the US Treasury Secretary, said that Europe needs to balance austerity and growth and make a little effort to stimulate demand and create growth. The US economy is undoubtedly recovering

2. It was reported that the Federal Reserve would withdraw from QE, and foreign banks said that the negative impact on China was limited. Foreign investment bank economists generally believe that the Fed is less likely to withdraw from QE in the short term, and the speed will be relatively slow, with limited negative impact on China's economy

792.9 billion new credit was added in March and April, and monetary policy is expected to remain stable. The high-pressure policies of relevant departments on shadow banking did not show an effect on the data. According to the statistics released by the central bank yesterday, the scale of social financing in April this year was 1.75 trillion yuan, 783.3 billion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 792.9 billion yuan in the same month, with an increase of 111.1 billion yuan year-on-year and a decrease of 267.1 billion yuan month on month

4. The urbanization meeting has been postponed repeatedly, or because the senior management is dissatisfied with the draft plan. Recently, it was reported that the reason for the repeated postponement of the meeting may be that the high-level officials are not satisfied with the embryonic urbanization development plan, and there is still a lot of room for revision of the draft. It is reported that the overall urbanization development plan is expected to be reviewed in July

5. The state plans to deal with overcapacity, involving steel, cement, shipbuilding and other industries. According to the authority 3. 2015 outlook, resolving overcapacity in some industries has become an important task of adjusting the industrial structure. The state is ready to issue the "guiding opinions on resolving overcapacity". The national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other ministries and commissions are actively investigating this and formulating relevant opinions, which will be submitted to the State Council in writing soon

II. Relevant disk summary

last Friday, the U.S. stock market closed higher, and the Dow and S & P 500 index hit another closing high. The S & P 500 index has been positive for three consecutive weeks. The group of seven London meeting opened on Friday, and investors are thinking about the central bank's stimulus policy. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said he would closely monitor financial market risks. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 35.87 points, or 0.24%, to 15118.49; The S & P 500 index rose 7.01 points, or 0.43%, to 1633.68. Gold futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $32 to close at $1436.6 per ounce. Crude oil futures for June delivery fell $0.35 to close at $96.04 a barrel. The closing price of copper in LME was 7375 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton from the previous trading day

III. billet price trend

early on the 13th: Tangshan ordinary billet fell by 20 yesterday, and it was delivered to 3140 in Changli this morning. Tangshan Xinglong/Guoyi factory 3120 includes tax; The bare price of traders is about 2990

IV. ore price trend

last week, the iron concentrate Market in Hebei remained stable on the whole, but in some regions, affected by the purchase price adjustment of steel mills, the price fell slightly, ranging from yuan/ton. The market transaction situation is not too optimistic. Steel mills purchase cautiously, and inventories are decreasing day by day. After the sharp decline in the price of imported iron ore last week, the spot price in the port remained stable this week, and the mainstream transaction price of Pb powder was at the level of yuan/ton. Compared with the spot price, the external price increased slightly this week, and the average transaction price of 62% Australian flour was 132usd/mdt. The mainstream market price of 66% acid powder dry basis excluding tax in Tangshan is 1090 yuan. At present, the mainstream quotation of 63.5/63% Indian fine ore in the external market of imported ore is about 120 US dollars. The quotation of 63.5% Indian fine ore in Tianjin port is 970 yuan/ton; The quotation of 61.5% PB fine ore in Qingdao port is 940 yuan/ton

v. coke price trend

last week, the national coke market was weak, and the overall performance was strong in the north and weak in the south. The price in Hebei fell slightly, and the market transaction was good after the fall; Affected by the price adjustment in Rizhao at the beginning of the month, prices in some parts of Shandong continued to decline slightly, and the market performance was weak; Under the continuous pressure of local steel mills, the coke market in Anhui, Xuzhou and other places fell, and the relative price reduction was large. The steel market performance in May was still lower than expected. The coke market was infected by a new round of price reduction, and the pessimistic atmosphere was stronger than that in the early stage. It is expected that the coke market will be dominated by weak consolidation in the short term, and some regions may still fall significantly. Xianshan gb/t18477 (2) 001 "unplasticized polyvinyl chloride (PVC-U) double wall corrugated pipes for underground drainage" Western first-class metallurgical coke 1350 yuan/ton; The ex factory tax price of quasi first-class metallurgical coke is 1300 yuan; Hebei Handan secondary metallurgical coke 1340 yuan; The ex factory tax price of secondary metallurgical coke in Huaibei area is 1320 yuan; The ex factory tax price of secondary metallurgical coke in Zibo area is 1330 yuan

VI. close of thread hot coil

close on May 10, the closing price of 25mm grade III deformed steel bar in Beijing market was 3620 yuan/ton, the same as the price of the previous day; Grade III deformed steel bars in Shanghai market were 3510 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; The third grade deformed steel bar in Guangzhou market was 3830 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price of the previous day

5 the operation process of wire torsion testing machine closed on October 10. The closing price of 5.5mmq235 hot rolled coil in Shanghai market was 3610 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day; The closing price of hot coil in Tianjin market was 3540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the price of the previous day; Lecong hot coil market closed at 3710 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the price of the previous day

on May 10, rb1307, the main contract of hot coil electronic disk, opened at 3630 yuan. After the opening, it rose violently, reaching a maximum of 3648 yuan and a minimum of 3607 yuan. Finally, it closed at 3645 yuan, down 2 yuan from the previous trading day, and finally closed at a small positive line. The trading volume was 174210 hands, an increase over the previous trading day, and the position was 175770 hands, a decrease of 3940 hands. Today's price pressure point is expected to be 3700 yuan/ton, and the support point is expected to be 3600 yuan/ton

VIII. Spot price forecast

it is estimated that the price of 25mm grade III deformed steel bar in Beijing market today will fall by 20 yuan/ton to 3600 yuan/ton; The quotation of grade III deformed steel bar in Shanghai market fell by 10 yuan/ton to 3500 yuan/ton; The market price of grade III deformed steel bar in Guangzhou market fell by 10 yuan/ton, and the quotation was 3820 yuan/ton

it is expected that the mainstream quotation of 5.5mmq235 hot rolled coil in Shanghai market today will fall by 10 yuan/ton, at about 3600 yuan/ton; The listing price of hot coil in Tianjin market fell by 10 yuan/ton to 3530 yuan/ton; Lecong's hot coil quotation fell by 10 yuan/ton, and the market quotation was about 3700 yuan/ton